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If Past Is Prologue

March 31, 2025

Road to Recovery

April 2, 2025

Two Potential Post-Tariff Scenarios

Key Takeaways

  • Tariffs are coming April 2nd with the full extent of the impact not understood until May
  • Bullish recovery for BTC is possible with a diagonal iH&S pointing to an ATH retest
  • The bearish continuation possibility could bring price below $70k once again

Digital Asset Commentary

As the quarter comes to a close, investors and traders remain highly focused on the ongoing tariff developments dominating the market. A significant amount of uncertainty should be resolved once the official tariff announcements are made on April 2nd. While bearish expectations may already be priced in, the risk of a global tariff trade war could drive markets lower. Given Bitcoin’s strong correlation with the U.S. tech sector, it would likely follow suit. However, BTC has shown some relative outperformance in recent weeks, as reflected in the IBIT/QQQ, IBIT/MAGS, and IBIT/IGV pairs.

After breaking below the $94K range in February, BTC has once again consolidated within a broad trading range. Two potential outcomes for Q2 are emerging, with greater clarity expected after April 2nd.

The first scenario is a bullish reversal, characterized by an inverted head and shoulders pattern. This formation consists of an extreme low flanked by two higher lows, with a diagonal neckline acting as resistance around $87K. If confirmed, this pattern suggests a potential move toward an ATH retest at $108k. Key levels to watch for confirmation include holding the yearly pivot at $80K, reclaiming bullish territory on the Cloud above $90K, and surpassing the 20-WMA at $94K.

The second scenario is bearish continuation, which, based on current price positioning relative to trend metrics, appears more probable. A downward range expansion could lead to a target zone of $61K–$67K, based on Fibonacci extensions. Additionally, the volume profile from 2024’s multi-month consolidation suggests support at $63K and $67K. A break below $70K would likely signal the end of the current bullish cycle, necessitating either an extended consolidation or further downside before a new uptrend can develop.

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Steven McClurg

Founder, CEO

Prior to founding Canary, Steven co-founded and served as CIO of Valkyrie Investments, whose public funds business was acquired by CoinShares in 2024. He was previously a Managing Director at Guggenheim Partners, overseeing portfolio strategy for fixed income and private equity. He also founded Theseus Capital (acquired by Galaxy Digital) and served as an MD at Galaxy. Steven holds a Master of Science and MBA from Pepperdine University, where he has served as an adjunct professor.

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Drew Hill

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Drew is a seasoned digital asset attorney with deep expertise in securities law and fund compliance. Before Canary, he was GC and CCO at Valkyrie Investments and a key figure in Frost Brown Todd LLC’s Blockchain and M&A practice. He holds a BA in Finance & Spanish from the University of Oregon and a JD from Northwestern’s Pritzker School of Law.

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Jamal Pesaran

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Jamal Pesaran, CFA, is Co-Chief Investment Officer for Canary Capital LLC. With 30 years of investment experience, he has extensive portfolio management, trade execution as well as client-facing experience.

As Senior Portfolio Manager with Guggenheim Partners, Jamal helped build the Guggenheim Equities business and developed the income focused and risk-managed strategies with AUM of over $4 Billion. With Morgan Stanley, as Senior PM and CIO for an Ultra High Net worth team, he managed both Active equity, fixed income strategies as well as overall portfolio allocations across alternative assets. Prior to joining Canary Capital, as Head of Capital Markets for Clifton AI, he helped develop and market a Gen-AI platform for Investment Research. His experience includes extensive portfolio management experience as Senior Equity Options Portfolio Manager, across European, US and Asian markets with Goldman Sachs and UBS Securities. He worked in Equity Derivatives Hedge Fund Sales with Lehman Brothers in New York and HSBC in Hong Kong.

He holds an MBA from UCLA Anderson where he was awarded the Edward Carter Fellowship for academic performance in the top 2% of the class.

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