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Token Deep Dive: TRON (TRX)

September 4, 2026

Rates, Ranges & Robinhood

Key Takeaways

  • Rates: Hike odds back to 60%; CPI Friday key.
  • Crypto: BTC chops; ETH remains stronger as some alt coins rally.
  • Robinhood Chain: Activity surpasses Base; altcoin momentum building.

Digital Asset Commentary

Rate hike odds have moved from 60% to 50% and back to 60%, setting up a potential showdown on the FOMC vote. August CPI is due Friday and is projected by the Fed Nowcast at 3.38%, up from 3.30% last month. PCE looks even more problematic at 3.80%, well above Warsh’s 2.00% target. CPI will likely be enough to tip the hold/hike odds in one direction, but may not be sufficient to ultimately change the Fed’s vote.

Robinhood Chain activity since launch compared with Coinbase Base, showing weekly year-to-date transactions and revenue.]

Crypto has been extremely reactive to the macro backdrop, particularly swings in oil and geopolitical headlines. With rate expectations still indecisive, price action has been increasingly binary, with little movement between macro catalysts—classic late-summer trading. BTC and ETH have largely chopped within their ranges, although ETH continues to maintain a bullish stance against BTC on the ETH/BTC pair. BTC may be forming a double top, or “M for murder,” which could send price back toward the $70K region. Bears have once again pointed to the 50WMA at $79,700 as key resistance, a level that has historically acted as a litmus test for Bitcoin’s broader trend. ETH’s consolidation looks considerably more constructive, with a confirmed breakout on any daily close above $2,500 potentially opening the door toward $3,000. It is unlikely that BTC and ETH move in opposite directions for long; more likely, a BTC decline would drag ETH and the broader crypto market lower with it.

The exception to a lack of summer excitement has been the significant uptick in activity on Robinhood Chain (RHC), an Ethereum L2 built using the Arbitrum stack. Unlike previous launchpad metas, RHC is focused not only on memes but also on tokenized assets and basket products with ETF-like structures. Associated chains Arbitrum (ARB) and Uniswap (UNI) have also both posted significant gains over the past few weeks as well. RHC activity has also surpassed activity on Coinbase’s Base, an especially notable development given the typically bearish seasonal backdrop. If broader crypto markets return to a sustained bull trend, RHC could see further explosive growth in altcoin activity.

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Steven McClurg

Founder, CEO

Prior to founding Canary, Steven co-founded and served as CIO of Valkyrie Investments, whose public funds business was acquired by CoinShares in 2024. He was previously a Managing Director at Guggenheim Partners, overseeing portfolio strategy for fixed income and private equity. He also founded Theseus Capital (acquired by Galaxy Digital) and served as an MD at Galaxy. Steven holds a Master of Science and MBA from Pepperdine University, where he has served as an adjunct professor.

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Drew Hill

President, CLO

Drew is a seasoned digital asset attorney with deep expertise in securities law and fund compliance. Before Canary, he was GC and CCO at Valkyrie Investments and a key figure in Frost Brown Todd LLC’s Blockchain and M&A practice. He holds a BA in Finance & Spanish from the University of Oregon and a JD from Northwestern’s Pritzker School of Law.

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Jamal Pesaran

Co-Chief Investment Officer

Jamal Pesaran, CFA, is Co-Chief Investment Officer for Canary Capital LLC. With 30 years of investment experience, he has extensive portfolio management, trade execution as well as client-facing experience.

As Senior Portfolio Manager with Guggenheim Partners, Jamal helped build the Guggenheim Equities business and developed the income focused and risk-managed strategies with AUM of over $4 Billion. With Morgan Stanley, as Senior PM and CIO for an Ultra High Net worth team, he managed both Active equity, fixed income strategies as well as overall portfolio allocations across alternative assets. Prior to joining Canary Capital, as Head of Capital Markets for Clifton AI, he helped develop and market a Gen-AI platform for Investment Research. His experience includes extensive portfolio management experience as Senior Equity Options Portfolio Manager, across European, US and Asian markets with Goldman Sachs and UBS Securities. He worked in Equity Derivatives Hedge Fund Sales with Lehman Brothers in New York and HSBC in Hong Kong.

He holds an MBA from UCLA Anderson where he was awarded the Edward Carter Fellowship for academic performance in the top 2% of the class.

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Josh Olszewicz

VP, Head of Trading

With over a decade in digital asset markets, Josh leads Canary’s trading strategy and research. He previously headed crypto research at BraveNewCoin, was a portfolio manager at Techemy Capital, and served as Head of Research at Valkyrie Investments. Josh holds a BS in Human Biology and an MS in Biotechnology, and formerly taught lab sciences at the university level.

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Associate Trader

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