The First 100 Days
Key Takeaways
- Bond market turbulence likely influenced the 90-day tariff pause by President Trump
- Tariff rhetoric from the Trump admin remains fluid with deals yet to materialize
- BTC has quietly held the current lows but remains in bearish to neutral territory
Digital Asset Commentary
Recent market turbulence has been marked by extreme volatility in the bedrock risk-free rate, the ten-year yield, which appears to be linked to a leveraged basis trade unwind. At the same time, global bond yields continue to climb, reflecting broader concerns in the financial landscape.
Although there was a 90-day pause in Trump’s US tariffs last week, the reprieve has yet to generate any meaningful progress in trade negotiations. Rhetoric around trade remains fluid and confusing, with shifting positions across all four key areas: reciprocal, sectoral, Canada & Mexico, and China. This uncertainty unfolds against the backdrop of what would have been a soft landing scenario, where CPI stands at 2.4% (Truflation is notably lower at 1.4%) and unemployment at 4.2%. Despite the current economic measures favoring a mission accomplished by the Fed, tariffs have contributed to growing expectations of both rising inflation and rising unemployment.
Volatility in traditional risk markets has made digital asset investors cautious, even as Bitcoin establishes a minor foothold within its current price range. While higher timeframe trends remain intact, shorter timeframes still appear bearish to neutral unless Bitcoin can reclaim the $90k level. Historically, a declining DXY and rising gold prices have shown a lead-lag relationship with Bitcoin, but this correlation has yet to provide a meaningful tailwind. The most bullish scenario for the current range would be an expansion into the $130k–$150k zone, based on Fibonacci extensions. Otherwise, a move to new local lower lows could pull BTC back into the multi-month 2024 range and potentially signal the end of the current four-year cycle. Until momentum returns to BTC, alts are likely to remain stagnant, with subdued and directionless price action.
