Road to Recovery
Key Takeaways
- The April 2nd tariff impact may prove to be less broad than once feared
- BTC is developing a high timeframe iH&S pattern suggestive of an ATH retest
- CME BTC futures premiums have dropped while ETF flows have turned positive
Digital Asset Commentary
The tariff outlook narrowed over the weekend, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that the April 2nd plan will focus on targeted reciprocal levies. This reduced tariff impact has eased market uncertainty. Risk markets responded positively, with Bitcoin rebounding over the weekend to reclaim its 200-day moving average. Additionally, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw nearly $775 million in net inflows last week — the first weekly positive flow since early February, ending a $5.3 billion outflow streak.
If the April 2nd tariff enactments turn out to be less severe than anticipated, an inverted head-and-shoulders (iHS) formation could develop into and throughout Q2, with key neckline resistance around $93K. This pattern suggests a potential price move to the $104K-$112K range, aligning with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. A more aggressive bullish target for Q2 is the yearly pivot resistance at $121K.
Meanwhile, the CME BTC futures premium has dropped significantly from its December high but hasn’t fully reset. Similar elevated premiums were observed at the 2021 market peaks, both coinciding with extreme BTC price levels.
From a cycle perspective, Bitcoin is approaching one year post-halving, a period typically associated with positive annual performance. The two-year moving average multiplier (2YMA) offers a potential long-term cycle target near $300K. In previous cycles, Bitcoin has reached the 2YMA resistance level — including the 2021 peak — before reversing toward the 2YMA support, which currently sits at $56K.
