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Seasonality & Futures Positioning Signal Crypto Headwinds

August 20, 2025

Crypto Momentum Builds on Policy Support & Institutional Interest

August 20, 2025

Digital Asset Resilience Meets a Critical Macro Week

Key Takeaways

  • BTC and ETH are both near key price levels amid strong institutional interest
  • Seasonal trends may take a back seat to post-halving strength and liquidity
  • Event-heavy week ahead with earnings from tech giants and key economic data

Digital Asset Commentary

Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight range. As of last Friday, Galaxy Digital announced the completion of an 80,000 BTC sale from a long-term holder dating back to 2011. Meanwhile, Michael Saylor’s latest preferred stock IPO, STRC, raised $2.52 billion, making it the largest IPO of the year at more than twice the size of Circle’s. The proceeds will be used to purchase additional BTC in the coming days. The key BTC breakout level remains $120k, with a Cup and Handle bullish continuation pattern suggesting a potential target range of $140k to $160k. Ethereum has also quickly approached a key psychological level of $4,000, with multiple treasury companies set to continue buying ETH at a voracious pace. A BTC breakout to new all-time highs may be enough to also provide ETH with its first all-time high since October 2021, which currently stands at $4,878

Despite recent bullish momentum, especially from Ethereum, seasonally bearish months lie ahead. Historically, BTC underperforms in August and September before strong Q4 rallies. However, in post-halving years, August has averaged a 36% gain since 2013, contradicting the usual trend. With legacy indices pushing all-time highs on low volatility and traditional safe havens like gold remaining subdued, digital assets may have room to move higher.

This week, markets face a packed calendar. Major earnings reports from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, and Meta are on deck, alongside the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, where no change is expected. The Treasury’s Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) will reveal the updated financing estimate and the planned mix of bills versus bonds. Key macroeconomic data, Q2 GDP, the July jobs report, and the PCE inflation gauge, will be released throughout the week. On Friday, Trump is expected to issue new tariff letters, following finalized trade deals with Japan and the EU last week. Any one of these events or data releases could spark volatility in a market that hasn’t seen a single-day move of more than 2% in the S&P 500 since May 26th.

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Steven McClurg

Founder, CEO

Prior to founding Canary, Steven co-founded and served as CIO of Valkyrie Investments, whose public funds business was acquired by CoinShares in 2024. He was previously a Managing Director at Guggenheim Partners, overseeing portfolio strategy for fixed income and private equity. He also founded Theseus Capital (acquired by Galaxy Digital) and served as an MD at Galaxy. Steven holds a Master of Science and MBA from Pepperdine University, where he has served as an adjunct professor.

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Drew Hill

President, CLO

Drew is a seasoned digital asset attorney with deep expertise in securities law and fund compliance. Before Canary, he was GC and CCO at Valkyrie Investments and a key figure in Frost Brown Todd LLC’s Blockchain and M&A practice. He holds a BA in Finance & Spanish from the University of Oregon and a JD from Northwestern’s Pritzker School of Law.

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Jamal Pesaran

Co-Chief Investment Officer

Jamal Pesaran, CFA, is Co-Chief Investment Officer for Canary Capital LLC. With 30 years of investment experience, he has extensive portfolio management, trade execution as well as client-facing experience.

As Senior Portfolio Manager with Guggenheim Partners, Jamal helped build the Guggenheim Equities business and developed the income focused and risk-managed strategies with AUM of over $4 Billion. With Morgan Stanley, as Senior PM and CIO for an Ultra High Net worth team, he managed both Active equity, fixed income strategies as well as overall portfolio allocations across alternative assets. Prior to joining Canary Capital, as Head of Capital Markets for Clifton AI, he helped develop and market a Gen-AI platform for Investment Research. His experience includes extensive portfolio management experience as Senior Equity Options Portfolio Manager, across European, US and Asian markets with Goldman Sachs and UBS Securities. He worked in Equity Derivatives Hedge Fund Sales with Lehman Brothers in New York and HSBC in Hong Kong.

He holds an MBA from UCLA Anderson where he was awarded the Edward Carter Fellowship for academic performance in the top 2% of the class.

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Josh Olszewicz

VP, Head of Trading

With over a decade in digital asset markets, Josh leads Canary’s trading strategy and research. He previously headed crypto research at BraveNewCoin, was a portfolio manager at Techemy Capital, and served as Head of Research at Valkyrie Investments. Josh holds a BS in Human Biology and an MS in Biotechnology, and formerly taught lab sciences at the university level.

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Linnea Steffy

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Invetor Relations

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Redding Shelby

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Dylan Farnick

Associate Trader

With over a decade of experience in digital asset markets, Dylan brings a strategic approach to trading and research. He quickly honed his skills in navigating digital exchanges and futures trading, with research focused on post-mortem analysis. His expertise extends beyond trading to include UI/UX consulting, working on trading interfaces and documentation for various platforms including Kraken and Tradingview, as well as community management, where he provided direct product feedback as a liaison with the crypto trading community.

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Bronson Kaufusi

Business Development

A former NFL athlete turned business strategist, Bronson blends on-the-field experience with data-driven leadership. He brings expertise in consulting, real estate, blockchain, and data analytics, and has led initiatives supporting startups and athletic organizations alike. He serves as a board member at UVU, Head of Player Development at OG1 Athletes, and is active in nonprofit and entrepreneurial networks.

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