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Crypto Market Framework Takes Shape, BTC Holds Steady

July 15, 2025

Market Cap Milestones: Crypto’s Monthly Climb Since 2017

July 23, 2025

Bitcoin Hits ATH as Short Squeeze and ETFs Fuel Rally

Key Takeaways

  • A BTC Cup & Handle chart pattern breakout, targets the $140k–$160k region
  • Record ETH ETF flows, ETH treasury buying, and strong staking inflows
  • Favorable US digital asset bills likely to pass; hot CPI could delay rate cuts

Digital Asset Commentary

Bitcoin has broken above multi-month resistance, setting a new all-time high (ATH) at $123k. This breakout confirms the Cup and Handle bullish continuation chart pattern, which now projects a potential target range of $140k to $160k. The rally was fueled in part by a massive short squeeze across crypto exchanges, with approximately $326 million in short positions liquidated on July 10th, according to Glassnode, one of the highest daily liquidation totals on record. CME BTC futures data also shows that speculators continue to expand short positions while crypto margin funding remains relatively calm, adding more potential fuel for the rally due to increasingly offsides positioning. BTC ETFs saw over $2.7 billion in net inflows last week, marking one of the largest weekly flows ever as BTC treasury companies continue to also gobble more BTC.

Ethereum shows a similarly strong setup. ETH ETF flows hit a record high last week at nearly $1 billion. Net short positioning and calm margin funding levels suggest there’s additional upside potential for ETH as well. Several ETH treasury companies have recently emerged, aiming to replicate Saylor’s Strategy with ETH holdings. Staking metrics are also robust, with an entry queue for new validators, an all-time high in active validators, and record ETH supply staked. Collectively, this should act as a bullish tailwind for ETH as more tokens are removed from circulation.

On the regulatory front, several key bills are expected to be voted on this week, including the GENIUS Act for stablecoin legislation, the CLARITY Act to establish a crypto market structure framework, and an anti-CBDC bill. These measures have a high likelihood of passing and would help solidify US digital asset leadership while broadening the range of crypto products available to investors.

One potential headwind for the market is this week’s CPI print. A stronger-than-expected inflation reading could delay the two rate cuts currently priced in by CME Fed Rate probabilities, which might temper risk appetite if inflation shows signs of re-accelerating.

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Steven McClurg

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Prior to founding Canary, Steven co-founded and served as CIO of Valkyrie Investments, whose public funds business was acquired by CoinShares in 2024. He was previously a Managing Director at Guggenheim Partners, overseeing portfolio strategy for fixed income and private equity. He also founded Theseus Capital (acquired by Galaxy Digital) and served as an MD at Galaxy. Steven holds a Master of Science and MBA from Pepperdine University, where he has served as an adjunct professor.

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As Senior Portfolio Manager with Guggenheim Partners, Jamal helped build the Guggenheim Equities business and developed the income focused and risk-managed strategies with AUM of over $4 Billion. With Morgan Stanley, as Senior PM and CIO for an Ultra High Net worth team, he managed both Active equity, fixed income strategies as well as overall portfolio allocations across alternative assets. Prior to joining Canary Capital, as Head of Capital Markets for Clifton AI, he helped develop and market a Gen-AI platform for Investment Research. His experience includes extensive portfolio management experience as Senior Equity Options Portfolio Manager, across European, US and Asian markets with Goldman Sachs and UBS Securities. He worked in Equity Derivatives Hedge Fund Sales with Lehman Brothers in New York and HSBC in Hong Kong.

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