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Head & Shoulders Fears

February 19, 2025

“The Most Beautiful Word”

February 19, 2025

Best of the Best

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin finished 2024 with a 120% return, highest among asset classes
  • Bitcoin volatility has held lower in recent years, set for a spike in 2025
  • A Bitcoin price move above the $100k level may lead to a +20% move in Q1

Digital Asset Commentary

After another year was added to the asset class returns quilt, Bitcoin once again finished at the top with a +120% return. Since 2013, BTC has provided the best returns in every risk-on year when compared to other asset classes (Swan). Despite also being known as the nitroglycerine of asset classes, BTC volatility has dampened dramatically in recent years. Volatility spikes have shown diminishing excitement at the cycle peaks of 2013, 2018, and 2021. Using volatility accelerations as your guide, you would likely be unable to identify the current ATH when compared to previous cycles and may hint at further upside volatility to come over the next year.

Recent US Dollar strength and negative liquidity headwinds have been battling the upcoming regulatory clarity and potential Strategic Bitcoin Reserve tailwinds. USD bullishness seemed to have found a reprieve after an article in the Washington Post hinted at more targeted industry-specific tariffs opposed to the broader universal tariff. Trump lambasted the article on social media, calling it “Fake News”. Nevertheless, bearish volatility in the DXY was enough to help push BTC prices higher during the US session Monday, after the end of year stalemate below the $100k level. A resounding breach of the current range would invalidate a multi-shouldered Head & Shoulders (H&S) bearish reversal chart pattern which had been brewing since the initial move above $92k in late November. The bullish negation of the H&S suggests an upcoming potential measured move in the $120k – $130k range.

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Steven McClurg

Founder, CEO

Prior to founding Canary, Steven co-founded and served as CIO of Valkyrie Investments, whose public funds business was acquired by CoinShares in 2024. He was previously a Managing Director at Guggenheim Partners, overseeing portfolio strategy for fixed income and private equity. He also founded Theseus Capital (acquired by Galaxy Digital) and served as an MD at Galaxy. Steven holds a Master of Science and MBA from Pepperdine University, where he has served as an adjunct professor.

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Drew Hill

President, CLO

Drew is a seasoned digital asset attorney with deep expertise in securities law and fund compliance. Before Canary, he was GC and CCO at Valkyrie Investments and a key figure in Frost Brown Todd LLC’s Blockchain and M&A practice. He holds a BA in Finance & Spanish from the University of Oregon and a JD from Northwestern’s Pritzker School of Law.

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Jamal Pesaran

Co-Chief Investment Officer

Jamal Pesaran, CFA, is Co-Chief Investment Officer for Canary Capital LLC. With 30 years of investment experience, he has extensive portfolio management, trade execution as well as client-facing experience.

As Senior Portfolio Manager with Guggenheim Partners, Jamal helped build the Guggenheim Equities business and developed the income focused and risk-managed strategies with AUM of over $4 Billion. With Morgan Stanley, as Senior PM and CIO for an Ultra High Net worth team, he managed both Active equity, fixed income strategies as well as overall portfolio allocations across alternative assets. Prior to joining Canary Capital, as Head of Capital Markets for Clifton AI, he helped develop and market a Gen-AI platform for Investment Research. His experience includes extensive portfolio management experience as Senior Equity Options Portfolio Manager, across European, US and Asian markets with Goldman Sachs and UBS Securities. He worked in Equity Derivatives Hedge Fund Sales with Lehman Brothers in New York and HSBC in Hong Kong.

He holds an MBA from UCLA Anderson where he was awarded the Edward Carter Fellowship for academic performance in the top 2% of the class.

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Josh Olszewicz

VP, Head of Trading

With over a decade in digital asset markets, Josh leads Canary’s trading strategy and research. He previously headed crypto research at BraveNewCoin, was a portfolio manager at Techemy Capital, and served as Head of Research at Valkyrie Investments. Josh holds a BS in Human Biology and an MS in Biotechnology, and formerly taught lab sciences at the university level.

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Linnea Steffy

VP, Finance

Linnea leads finance at Canary Capital, overseeing FP&A, fund accounting, and mid-office operations across the firm’s hedge funds, private funds, and ETFs. A strategic finance expert with a decade of experience, she previously managed over $850M+ in operating budgets at Discovery Inc., where she partnered directly with executive and creative leadership on major US networks including HGTV, DIY, and GAC. Linnea began her career at KPMG and holds a BS in Business Administration from the University of Tennessee, Knoxville.

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Amber Reedy

Invetor Relations

Amber has over 15 years of experience driving growth through investor engagement, partnership strategy, and cross-sector business development. She’s known for building long-term relationships with institutional allocators and key stakeholders. Her strength lies in unlocking new revenue streams and delivering measurable outcomes across verticals.

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Redding Shelby

ETF Operations Lead

Redding leads ETF operations at Canary Capital, managing daily fund activities across trading, accounting, and finance responsibilities. He is a fund operations professional with over five years of experience in ETF administration and business management. His expertise spans transaction oversight, reconciliations, and compliance for ETFs with exposure to digital assets. At U.S. Bancorp, Redding was instrumental in launching '40 Act ETF products and supporting the administrative needs of a leading national service platform. He excels at identifying and implementing process improvements, and collaborating across business units to drive performance. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Finance from Ouachita Baptist University.
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Alexis Busse

Executive Assistant

A graduate of the University of Wisconsin–Madison with a degree in Kinesiology and a certificate in Athletic Healthcare, Alexis serves as Executive Assistant and Office Manager. She brings management experience in hospitality and fitness to her role, supporting executive initiatives and overseeing daily operations to ensure organizational efficiency and seamless coordination across the company.

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Dylan Farnick

Associate Trader

With over a decade of experience in digital asset markets, Dylan brings a strategic approach to trading and research. He quickly honed his skills in navigating digital exchanges and futures trading, with research focused on post-mortem analysis. His expertise extends beyond trading to include UI/UX consulting, working on trading interfaces and documentation for various platforms including Kraken and Tradingview, as well as community management, where he provided direct product feedback as a liaison with the crypto trading community.

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Bronson Kaufusi

Business Development

A former NFL athlete turned business strategist, Bronson blends on-the-field experience with data-driven leadership. He brings expertise in consulting, real estate, blockchain, and data analytics, and has led initiatives supporting startups and athletic organizations alike. He serves as a board member at UVU, Head of Player Development at OG1 Athletes, and is active in nonprofit and entrepreneurial networks.

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